The coming collapse of the American art market

I've been wondering what will happen when the American art market collapses. I think it's going to happen soon -- maybe this summer.


The economic super-boom America has been in since the end of WWII paralleled the super-boom in American art. It was no coincidence that America's political and economic supremacy made American artists supreme. But that is about to change. Now that our boom has gone bust, the art boom will meet the same fate.


It's not that there will be no more money for art. Just like in other recessions, the American super-rich will get to keep much of their wealth and will still be able to spend it on expensive art. They just won't want to. What made American art so attractive to new money was what it symbolized: that exciting American supremacy. The rich didn't just want the status of owning art; they wanted the psychological justification for their wealth and power that that art seemed to provide. But once American supremacy diminishes, American art won't look so appetizing anymore. As a result, American artists are going to see a lot less demand for their work and much lower prices.


The art itself will change, too. In contrast to the egotistic exuberance of early-boom artists like Pollock, post-boom Americans artists will shed their bravado and mystique. No one will be interested in that anymore. And in a way, that will be a big relief. All the postmodern ennui, the fragmentation, reflexivity, and ambiguity, will finally come to an end. Postmodernism will be revealed for what it really was: not a discrete period constituting a reaction to Modernism, but merely Modernism's self-digestion and death. In other words, there is no such thing as Postmodernism. The period properly called "postmodern" has only recently arrived. Postmodernism was just the final period of Modernism: Late Modernism.


The new art won't be "post"-anything. It will be new. And it will build on the foundations of our new, globalized reality. It will be hugely influenced by the 2.0 paradigm. It will see the reclassification of the artist from lone visionary to collaborative craftsman. Luckily for America, it will begin right here, during our decline. Unluckily for America, it will then spread and find its greatest expression abroad, during the rise of other countries.


Update 2/8/08: Uneasiness at London auctions
Update 4/17/08: Is Street Turmoil Coloring Art Market? [WSJ preview, subscription required for full article]