The early signs are here: all the black on sale for winter; the Gap finally getting its act together and selling more colorful basics instead of trendy clothes (its older and younger brothers, Banana Republic and Old Navy, have made a similar switch as well); all the interest in Kate Moss; high-waisted jeans; the obsession with white Converse; American Apparel; androgyny. It's coming.
As soon as everyone acknowledges that we really are in a recession (or more precisely a "four-year slow-down," as my banker friend informs me), this will hit for real. Shoppers are already tightening their purse strings.
What will the apparel companies do? For a few years the fashion cycle has been so fast, and everyone has been buying trendy this and faddish that, throwing all their money away. I can't see how mass-market chains won't lose out when that suddenly drops off. There will still be some fads, of course; minimalism in the 90's wasn't just blankness, but a blank slate for other trends as well (grunge, heroin chic). But, like those, the fads superimposed on the 1990s of the 2000s won't be too lucrative, either. Luxury, of course, will keep booming through this, as those rich people continue to get even unbelievably richer, and they'll be able to afford the expensive designer versions of minimalism (People at Calvin Klein, start your engines).
So, the 90s trend is kind of a precursor to the end of the hipster fashion I predicted a few days ago. But, since it's still just a recycling of a previous decade, it's not the real deal. It will be more like a palate-cleanser. Because the 90s trend won't last a whole decade. In a few years, it will be over, and at that point we'll be all caught up; there won't be anything left to recycle...except for "recycling." How would that work--an ironic recycling of ironic recycling? That could be interesting. I look forward to seeing Marc Jacobs do it. Until then...black jeans, anyone...??
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