I see the girls walk by dressed in their summer clothes

The darkness isn't going to go if you turn your head, though.  More darkness is on the way.  In fact it would be appropriate, if you see a red dress, to paint it black, because black and more black is what we're going to be seeing this summer.

That's right, here it is, my favorite time of year: time to make the New York Downtown Young Ladies' Summer Fashion Trend Report.

It's all about separates, neutrals, minimalism, utilitarianism, lots of skin, and a tough attitude.

All the outfits worn by New York Downtown Young Ladies are a variation on this theme:

• white, black, gray, denim, or khaki short shorts or short skirt, high-waisted
• + white, black, or gray top of some kind
• OR black or white sundress BELTED AT THE WAIST -- NO empire line
• potential vest, layered shirt, or jacket in white, black, or denim -- NO SWEATERS

Guidelines for accessories:

• sandals, esp. gladiators or anything with an ankle strap, leather NOT jelly, espadrille, or other, TRUE sandal NOT FLIP-FLOP -- OR leather or canvas black/white/neutral lace-ups OR boots -- tough boots as motorcycle or winkle-picker, NOT round-toe scrunchy
• NO bag -- OR utilitarian bag - backpack, fanny pack, or as last resort TRUE handbag (no shoulder straps and especially NO HOBOS)
• the best accessories have some sort of significance or symbolism: for instance, political pins, wedding rings, friendship bracelets
• earrings are long and made of feathers or fringe or are hoops or simple studs but are NOT chandelier.  multiple ear piercings are good.
• chokers

Grooming:

• hair: should not be styled -- it should be air-dried and left in its natural state.  If it's frizzy in its natural state, it should be frizzy; if it's flat, it should be flat.  your growing-out bangs should be in your eyes.  don't trim your hair.
• makeup: pretty skin, some mascara.  NO EYELINER.  lip balm.
• no nail polish

Underwear

• I was a little wrong about bras.  it's OK to wear a bra, but it shouldn't be a heavy-duty bra.  It should be a garment and not an undergarment.  it should show -- the straps should show, or the color should show through your shirt.  or you can wear it on its own -- if it's a sports bra.  that could be really cool, actually.

The following are forbidden:

• irony
• color
• notions of "luxury" or "glamour"
• boho

Other notes:

• the right denim is old, thrifted, men's denim -- ideally a little torn.
• don't try to be sexy.  it's an election year, get over yourself
• shoes are going to be getting more and more utilitarian.  sandals this summer will give way to sneakers this fall and hiking boots and flat boots this winter.  notice how the nineties are coming back?
• also in that vein: perhaps instead of long hair, a bit of a sinead/ani moment?
• this winter the black turtleneck will succeed these black winter clothes.

I was right: Lipstick

As I predicted here, it looks like lipstick is about to come back.  The NYT says it's because of the recession.

Graffiti

One last reader question:

Do you see graffiti subjects or colors trending a certain way?

I am far from being an expert on graffiti, so I have no idea what the current trends are. However, the trend in street art that interests me the most is the work of the Splasher. The group behind "the Splasher" is very opposed to the growing alliance between and merging of art and commerce which I'm predicting will be the huge trend of the 21st century. "The Splasher" is one of the early examples of resistance to that trend.

Interestingly, I believe that the group behind the splashings may have had its own anti-co-optation art co-opted by Sephora, whose current promotion features a woman's face "splashed" with different colors of makeup. Granted, this is clearly supposed to be a Pollock reference -- but it's curious that a "splattered" image was chosen to advertise all the other "art"-themed makeup looks, which don't even include a Pollock-inspired look. It's possible that the Splasher was on the advertisers' minds and that the "splashed" aesthetic will be seeping into popular culture.  MAC Cosmetics is using the street art aesthetic in one of its new lines, too, by partnering with graffiti artist Fafi.  These art-focused makeup lines are evidence that cosmetics companies are finally beginning to resolve the mismatch between clothing and makeup (which I mentioned in this post) by catching up with apparel companies on the "creativity" trend.

Getting back to the anti-corporate-art movement: Just as international resistance to American dominance is taking a terrorist form, the Splasher's resistance to capitalism took the form of "art terrorism." But terrorism is no use against the market. Advertisers mastered and improved upon "guerrilla" publicity long ago, rhetorically bankrupting such tactics for their inventors. The organizers of the "splashings," by engaging in the same forum as the street artists, "lowered" themselves to the same level as the perceived sell-outs, and hurt their own cause more than they helped it.

How will counter-culture cope with the almost instantaneous co-optation of the "creative underclass" and its "terrorist" tactics by consumerism? Again, culture will follow the model of war: just as, under a Democratic administration, the U.S. will withdraw from Iraq and allow the Iraqis to "fight it out," capitalism, too, will cool its heels while the artists tear each other apart. Corporations will extract as much profit as possible from the fight, then pick up one day and leave, abandoning the creatives to fend for themselves in their ravaged community. Afterwards there will be a long period of "rebuilding," during which anger towards the exploiters will grow -- but it still won't find a powerful outlet in "terrorist" actions for years to come, because such tactics will be so discredited. Instead a "shadow" creative movement will grow, safe in isolation from commerce. One day, it, too, will be co-opted. That seems to be how things work.

Naive makeup

Instead of trying to make your makeup look perfect, why not make it look imperfect -- even naive?

Women are still stuck trying to look like celebrities, with their makeup as well as their clothes.  This is not only boring (and vulgar), but impossible!  It takes lots of skill, time, know-how, and expensive products to replicate the look professional makeup artists achieve -- and, even then, it rarely looks right or even good.

Instead, I'd like to see women applying makeup in a way that's honest about their skill level.  Lots of young women don't wear any makeup at all because they're afraid they'll get it wrong.  I say, stop worrying about getting it wrong, and just do it (wrong)!  I think adult women should go back to applying makeup like they did when they were little girls playing with their mothers' lipstick.  That was fun!

Instead of putting on all the correct layers in their correct order, why not just smear on one coat of bright lipstick -- without moisturizer, primer, lipliner, gloss, or powder -- and otherwise have a completely bare face?  Or, why not wear several coats of mascara and nothing else?  Or foundation without any other makeup?

Over-applied blush was trendy within recent memory (popularized by Anna on The O.C. -- remember??) and looks hideous BUT is also kind of cool.  Poorly-done or flaking-off manicures have been cool for teenagers recently and are reminiscent of that Tinkerbell plastic peel-off nail polish I remember using as a 6-year-old in the '80s.

It's interesting to note that naive makeup not only is a technique and look in itself, but also makes possible lots of additional new looks.  Lipstick-only creates a Lolita look; mascara-only makes a gamine look; and foundation-only makes an androgynous look.  Overdone blush results in a prostitute look and peeling-off polish in a grunge look.

I think it's funny that hipsters who take risks with their clothes are so safe with their makeup.  Why were girls wearing Goodwill outfits with full-on M.A.C. makeup at Misshapes?  I guess it's because they, like their idols, were getting photographed a lot and cared more about looking good than completing their fashion statement.  And that's kind of...lame, actually.

Although the application style of naive makeup is "naive," the total effect and meaning are not -- at least not in the more negative sense of the word.  Naive makeup is naive in the "natural and unaffected" sense.  It's very honest, empowered, and knowing, and projects a strong and sophisticated image.

It is possible to take this idea to too far an extreme: I saw a girl on the J train a couple of weeks ago who had drawn war stripes on her cheeks with hot pink lipstick.  She may have been insane.  So, I guess, don't go too far, or people on the subway will think you're crazy.

I don't think this will be a trend.  Although it could actually get lots more women wearing makeup, the loss in revenue from the women who already wore full-on makeup and started wearing less would make it unprofitable.  Also, since this look is best achieved using the very cheapest drugstore brands (Wet 'n' Wild, N.Y.C), high-end and medium-level brands would not benefit.

Glitter nail polish

Nails have a fast trend cycle now, with a change in length, shape, color, or decoration happening at least once a season.  It seems like the short, rounded shape is here to stay for a while.  Color has been the main changeable factor for the past few seasons, with pale pinks giving way to classic red, then black and its variations, then metallics, and now dark blue.  I think the next thing to come up will be a change in texture, which means glitter!  The black and blue trends have included "subtle shimmer," but I think BIG flecks of shine should come in next.  Silver and gold will be good, colored glitter better, multicolored even better, and, if someone would manufacture it, glitter in small shapes (hearts, dollar signs) would be best.  I think glitter could start showing up as early as next winter and be big for spring '09.

Lipstick

It's time for young women to start wearing lipstick again.  Gloss has been popular for too long, it's too much a part of the sweet/girly thing that is so over, and it's too wishy-washy of a statement for the more supercharged, ultrafemme style that I think is going to be in again.

Women over 35 wear lipstick all the time.  It's specifically younger women who are going to start getting into lipstick -- even teenagers.  It will be a "strong lip" -- no "natural" shades, but plenty of unnatural reds and pinks (but on the cooler side, not coral).  All the easier-to-wear stains, sheers, and cremes will ease the transition, but the real hard-core look will involve traditional matte or semi-matte full-coverage lipsticks.  I'm even thinking that some frosted shades could be quite hip-looking.

And I don't think this has to mean a neutral eye.  Hopefully it will mean at least slightly less eye makeup for certain people, but I think that whole idea of focusing only on the eyes or lips is really overdone, old-fashioned, and safe.  What about a real, made-up face?